Advancing TB Risk Prediction: ERASE-TB Research Presented at EDCTP Forum 2025

We’re proud to share highlights from the recent EDCTP Forum 2025, where Edson Marambire presented his poster on risk prediction models for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) infection. His work focused on adolescent and adult household contacts in Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe—key populations in the global TB response.

As part of the ERASE-TB consortium, Edson and colleagues developed and evaluated two types of risk scores:

• A basic score designed to be user-friendly for lay health workers

• A comprehensive score incorporating additional variables for more nuanced assessment

Both models were benchmarked against existing tools, offering valuable comparisons for field implementation.

Key takeaway? Models designed to predict progression to TB disease showed stronger predictive performance than those focused solely on infection. These insights highlight the need to focus on disease progression when designing effective TB risk assessment strategies.

This work reflects ERASE-TB’s commitment to early detection and preventive strategies, and was made possible through support from the European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP).

Edson received an Early Career Travel Scholarship from EDCTP to attend the forum and share these important findings with the global research community.